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Sears Holdings Corporation Short Selling Stock Delivery Failure Analysis - Prepare To Be Astounded

By Judd Bagley, Published: February 17th, 2010 2:05 PM CST

I’ve got everything ready to go for my next article, save one thing: the most current stock delivery failures data, corresponding to the second half of January, which the SEC was supposed to have made available yesterday.

I’m particularly eager to get that batch, because it has the capacity to confirm or rule-out my ability to predict the future.

See, I believe I know, to within a few percentage points, how some of that delivery failures data — up to this point supposedly known only to the DTCC and SEC — will read.

But instead of going mad waiting for it to be posted, I’m going to very publicly make my prediction here and now, and then follow up with the actual numbers once published. I shall then take my clairvoyant victory lap around the tiny office where I sit.

Therefore, I do predict the following:

With a margin of error of +/-2.5%, Shares of Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:SHLD) will be shown to have experienced CNS delivery failures of the following magnitudes on the indicated dates:

1/29/2010    787,612
1/28/2010    785,220
1/27/2010    768,384
1/26/2010    765,532
1/25/2010    780,436
1/22/2010    773,076
1/21/2010    1,384,968
1/20/2010    1,159,844
1/19/2010    1,384,600

Please check back often between today and tomorrow (or whenever the SEC gets around to posting the final numbers) to learn how accurate my predictions turned out to be, how I arrived at them, and why this is very bad news for our capital markets.

Judd Bagley is a reporter for Deep Capture

Related: SHLD

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